After the release of CPI data in the United States, the yield of euro zone bonds fell by about 1 basis point, and the yield of German 10-year bonds is now flat at 2.116%.The lowest temperature in the suburbs of Shanghai will fall below freezing point from Sunday. Today, the sky is cloudy and the rain is intermittent during the day. The temperature difference throughout the day is small, and the temperature in most areas is between 6~9℃. The highest temperature in Xujiahui Station in Shanghai during the day is only 7.9℃. The humidity is high, coupled with the northerly winds, and the wet and cold body feels doubled. Tomorrow is still a cold day. There are many cloud systems in Shanghai, mainly cloudy to cloudy, with weak precipitation and some short-term light rain in some areas. The wind is less than today, with northerly winds of 3-4 and coastal areas along the Yangtze River of 4-5. The temperature is between 6~11℃ and the relative humidity is 90%-60%. Affected by strong cold air, there was a strong wind and cooling process in Shanghai from 13th to 14th. At noon on the 13th (Friday), cold air began to affect Shanghai, and the temperature dropped. It is estimated that the minimum temperature will drop by 3 ~ 5 degrees in urban areas and 6 ~ 8 degrees in suburbs during the 48-hour period from 13th to 15th. The lowest temperature in most suburbs will be below freezing point from 15th to 18th. The lowest temperature of the process appeared on the morning of 15th and 16th, and the urban area dropped to about 3℃, while the suburbs of Chongming, Jinshan, Fengxian and Qingpu were-3℃ to-4℃, with thin ice or freezing. (Weather in Shanghai)Russian central bank survey: the average key interest rate in 2024 is expected to be 17.5%, compared with the previous forecast of 17.3%. The average key interest rate in 2025 is expected to be 21.3%, compared with the previous forecast of 18%.
Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 0.4%, and S&P 500 index futures rose 0.3%.Before the release of CPI in the United States, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 86.1%. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged by December was 13.9%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points was 86.1%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 10.6%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 69.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 20.2%.Analyst Curran: There are almost no surprises in today's CPI data. The housing index rose by 0.3% in November, accounting for nearly 40% of the monthly increase in all projects.
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